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Due to the change of government and the transformation of economic structure this year, the consumption of stainless steel seamless pipes in spring is slower than that of previous years. We judge that the stainless steel seamless pipe market in late spring and early summer is expected to usher in the first peak season of consumption this year. The specific reasons are as follows: First, fixed asset investment has more prominent seasonal characteristics. In the first quarter, China's economic recovery was weak, and economic data did not perform as expected, causing huge downward pressure on the commodity market.
Under this circumstance, the listed companies in the upstream and midstream industries, such as steel, non-ferrous metals and cement, which have been in trouble since last year, still have poor performance in the first quarter of this year. From January to April, the net profit of Wenzhou Stainless Steel Pipe Factory decreased by 20%~30%, and the loss of Taigang Steel Company was 120-150 million. Iron and steel companies generally said that the market situation in the first quarter of this year is still grim, the contradiction between supply and demand in the steel market is prominent, the degree of homogenization competition is still fierce, and the price of steel and raw fuel has a large "scissors difference", resulting in a sharp drop in the company's profitability. .
In other words, the price of stainless steel seamless pipe futures in May has little room for downside. However, from the coke supply and demand surface and price transfer mechanism analysis, the market does not have an uplink basis in the short term. Therefore, in the middle and early May of the year, the coke market is difficult to show a trend, but in the medium term, it should not be excessively pessimistic, and it is not possible to rule out the possibility that the stainless steel price will rebound.